A four-point rise in the GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index in January surprised researchers who warned that it should be treated with caution.

“The Index is sometimes subject to non-economic influences, and the uplift may simply reflect a hangover from the Christmas feelgood factor,” said Nick Moon, managing director of GfK NOP Social Research.

Taking into account the four-point rise, the Consumer Confidence Index stood at minus 29 last month, the same level as in January 2011. The good news is that the climate for major purchases has increased nine points to minus 22, seven points higher than this time last year.

“Consumer confidence is still seriously depressed and we should treat this month’s modest improvement with caution.” Mr Moon said. “Should February show another rise then we may be seeing signs that the gloom is dispelling – until then we should treat January’s findings as good, but certainly not great, news.”